Despite the 2024 market dip, heat pumps remain central to Europe’s climate and energy goals. Under the European Commission’s REPowerEU plan, the EU targets 10 million new heat pump installations by 2027 and 50–60 million units in operation by 2030. Industry experts view the slowdown as a market correction following two years of rapid growth, not a reversal. With strong policy support, clearer regulations and improving economic conditions, heat pump adoption is expected to rebound.
As with many renewable energy metrics, the Nordic countries lead Europe in heat pump adoption thanks to supportive policies, strong standards and ideal building conditions. Norway alone reached 24.5 units per 1,000 inhabitants. Meanwhile, uptake in countries like Germany and Poland remained low, highlighting significant regional disparities in the pace of clean heating adoption.
A simulation by gridX and RWTH Aachen University shows that combining a heat pump with a PV system and an advanced home energy management system (HEMS) can cut annual heating costs by €500–€830 in German households. In older homes with higher consumption, switching from oil heating to a heat pump with intelligent optimization can reduce costs by up to €1,390/year. Key savings come from self-consumption optimization, dynamic time of use tariffs and compliance to Germany’s §14a EnWG, demonstrating the untapped financial potential of heat pump flexibility when managed smartly.
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