Heat pump report 2025

Heat pump sales have slowed, but experts say it’s a market correction – not a collapse. With strong policy support and smart energy control, Europe is still on track for 50–60 million units by 2030.

Executive summary

Europe’s heat pump boom cools, but long-term goal holds

01

Sales in the 14 key countries, which account for roughly 90% of the European heat pump market, fell by nearly 22% from 2023 to 2024 (from 2.8 million to 2.2 million).

02

Factors influencing the sharp downturn in 2024 include a host of challenges, such as regulatory uncertainty, delayed subsidy rollouts, abrupt policy shifts, slowdown in construction and more.

03

The only European market to see a positive growth of heat pumps was the UK, with 98,469 units sold (38,000 more than in 2023). But the Nordics had the highest unit sales per capita.

04

Despite the launch of the Heating Exchange Bonus in 2024, heat pump sales in Germany were the worst on the continent with only 2.3 units sold per 1,000 inhabitants.

05

A gridX and RWTH Aachen study showed that advanced heat pump optimization via HEMS can save German households €500–€830 annually, driven by dynamic tariffs and self-consumption.

06

As heat pump adoption grows across Europe, pairing them with an advanced HEMS is key to turning them from high-load devices into flexible, future-ready assets that cut costs and support the grid.

Clean heating goals remain on track despite 2024 dip

Despite the 2024 market dip, heat pumps remain central to Europe’s climate and energy goals. Under the European Commission’s REPowerEU plan, the EU targets 10 million new heat pump installations by 2027 and 50–60 million units in operation by 2030. Industry experts view the slowdown as a market correction following two years of rapid growth, not a reversal. With strong policy support, clearer regulations and improving economic conditions, heat pump adoption is expected to rebound.

Heat pump adoption varies sharply across Europe

As with many renewable energy metrics, the Nordic countries lead Europe in heat pump adoption thanks to supportive policies, strong standards and ideal building conditions. Norway alone reached 24.5 units per 1,000 inhabitants. Meanwhile, uptake in countries like Germany and Poland remained low, highlighting significant regional disparities in the pace of clean heating adoption.

A heat pump and smart HEMS can save €830/year

A simulation by gridX and RWTH Aachen University shows that combining a heat pump with a PV system and an advanced home energy management system (HEMS) can cut annual heating costs by €500–€830 in German households. In older homes with higher consumption, switching from oil heating to a heat pump with intelligent optimization can reduce costs by up to €1,390/year. Key savings come from self-consumption optimization, dynamic time of use tariffs and compliance to Germany’s §14a EnWG, demonstrating the untapped financial potential of heat pump flexibility when managed smartly.

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